With rebels now in control of Damascus and President Bashar al-Assad ousted from the country, Syria stands at a pivotal juncture following 13 years of brutal civil war and more than half a century of al-Assad family rule. The swift collapse of Assad’s government, brought about by a 12-day offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has left analysts grappling with how such a monumental shift occurred so rapidly. Even the Biden administration appeared “caught off guard” by the speed of the rebel advance—though this isn’t the first time the U.S. has misjudged the resilience of a regime. A similar miscalculation occurred in Afghanistan, where U.S. intelligence overestimated the capacity of the Afghan government to stay in power after the Taliban insurgency.
As Syria enters an uncertain new chapter, the reliability of conflict and crisis prediction models and human forecasting faces renewed scrutiny. I am reviewing leading prediction tools, and expert analyses to evaluate how well they anticipated Syria’s recent upheaval. By identifying what these models got right and where they fell short, I wonder if there are any critical lessons for forecasting political events and their wide-ranging consequences in an increasingly unpredictable world. Or was this simply a “black swan” event—an unpredictable, high-impact occurrence that defies real-time forecasting?
Insights from ACLED and The Raleigh Report
Whenever crises like this unfold, my first go-to source is ACLED. Its comprehensive and real-time conflict data consistently provides invaluable insights into the dynamics of unfolding events. ACLED reported a week before the fall, captured events as they unfolded, documenting HTS’s seizure of over 200 towns and villages across Hama, Idlib, Aleppo, and Latakia. The report highlighted that the group exploited regional instability and a weakened regime (see the image below and the full report for details). ACLED also reported intensified aerial and artillery strikes by Syrian and Russian forces in response, amid escalating regional tensions.
ACLED’s Conflict Alert System (CAST) provides predictive insights into such events, highlighting the urgent need to understand the implications for Syria and the wider Middle East, a region facing multiple active fronts. The ACLED Conflict Index evaluates global conflict using four indicators: deadliness, civilian danger, geographic spread, and armed group fragmentation. In 2024, Syria ranked third globally with an "extreme" conflict level and was categorized as "consistently concerning." Although Syria was flagged in January and July, these warnings reflected ongoing patterns rather than unusual developments, aligning with trends from the previous year.
I also revisited the latest edition of The Raleigh Report—my favorite must-read for updates on conflicts and crises—to check if Syria was flagged. However, the most recent report before the fall focused exclusively on the U.S. elections, while the second-to-last report concentrated on al-Shabaab as a “pressing concern for East Africa,” escalations of violence in Sudan, and the Anglophone separatist conflict in Cameroon. Nevertheless, I look forward to the next edition, as I’m confident it will provide in-depth analysis on Syria. (Update on Syria – yes, the next edition of the Report highlighted that “while no one foresaw Assad falling in December, it also was not a surprise”. ACLED team is also announcing that this will be further discussedin the upcoming webinar on the Conflict Index and Watchlist in January — please sign up here. “
“The excellent Syria team at ACLED generated a phenomenal mapping of who fought whom leading up to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) assuming control, which armed groups are left and where. Reports of a surge in violence in Syria’s rural areas as HTS controls urban areas remind us that the end of one conflict changes a set of problems, but creates new (possibly non-violent) sets, and alters (rather than ends) all other violence problems. This same pattern is evident in Colombia and Ethiopia. “ The Raleigh Report from December 19, 2024
What International Crisis Group - CrisisWatch revealed about Syria
Similarly, the CrisisWatch - November Global Overview highlights that the HTS and its allies launched a swift offensive in northwest Syria, delivering a significant blow to President Assad. The overview also highlights that the situation forced the regime and its backers, Russia and Iran, to divert resources to counter the advance. It also recognizing the threat of renewed fighting, after more than four years of relative stalemate, to displacing hundreds of thousands and but also potentially threatening the government’s survival and complicating the overall situation in the region.
The past 12 months of CrisisWatch entries for Syria provide monthly analyses of the evolving conflict. The February 2024 report highlighted ongoing clashes between regime forces and rebels in the northwest, escalating in March with intensified drone attacks and civilian casualties. That month also saw protests against the HTS leader following reports of torture in HTS prisons. HTS responded by opening fire on protesters and releasing 420 detainees.
In June and July, CrisisWatch continued to document protest movements in the northwest demanding the resignation of the HTS leader—developments that, at the time, gave little indication of the major events to come in November. However, the October report noted increased attacks by the government and Russia in the northwest, aimed at preempting a potential HTS offensive. In hindsight, these actions suggest they were aware of the plans for the November offensive.
The significance of predictive analytics in humanitarian relief
The significance of predictive analytics in humanitarian relief and preparedness cannot be overstated, particularly in contexts like Syria, where ongoing crises demand proactive measures. While discussions about predictions often turn into political and security realms, my focus here is on the critical role of forecasting humanitarian needs and violence to better serve vulnerable populations. Syria has been grappling with a severe humanitarian crisis exacerbated by years of conflict, economic collapse, and natural disasters. According to UNHCR, Syria also remains a place of one of the largest displacement crisis in the world, displacing over seven million inside the country and more than six million to search refuge abroad. The recent ousting of Al-Assad has introduced new complexities, but the humanitarian situation was dire long before these geopolitical shifts.
As of 2024, the United Nations estimates that approximately 16.7 million out of 23.5 million Syrians—over 71%—require assistance due to the cumulative impacts of war and a devastating series of earthquakes that claimed thousands of lives. The UN's appeal for $4.07 billion in aid highlights the urgent need for resources, yet only a fraction has been funded, underscoring the gap between need and response. Predictive analytics can help transform humanitarian responses from reactive to anticipatory; by accurately forecasting potential crises—whether they stem from natural disasters or escalating violence—humanitarian organizations can implement anticipatory actions that mitigate suffering before it escalates. This approach not only saves lives but also preserves livelihoods by enabling communities to prepare adequately for impending shocks.
The current crisis in Syria is evolving rapidly and making further predictive analysis increasingly complex. This complexity underscores the urgent need to utilize tools such as ACLED’s Conflict Exposure Calculator, the Conflict Alert System (CAST), Conflict Index, and the International Crisis Group's Crisis Watch, among others. These and other resources offer valuable insights into potential developments in Syria, including platforms like Conflict Forecast – evaluating worldwide armed conflict risk, VIEWS – predicting conflict and humanitarian impacts, and the Danish Refugee Council's Foresight: Displacement forecasts and other analyses. In an upcoming edition of this newsletter, I will delve deeper into what these additional tools reveal about current and future signals in the region and how we can integrate these insights into our daily operations. I’ll also deep dive into some of the academic research and evaluation of prediction models, such as “Predicting the End of the Syrian Conflict: From Theory to the Reality of a Civil War“, “Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency”, and “Forecasting the Risk of Extreme Massacres in Syria”. If you are involved in any predictive modeling works or if you are a human forecaster, please share your insights on Syria and any lessons learned that could benefit our collective understanding.
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